Climate Change - OSTI GOV

Coffee supply chain planning under climate change

For all participants along the coffee supply chain, increasing demand and uncertain supply make the coffee industry's longevity a shared concern. A two-stage stochastic model is introduced and used within a horizon framework that regularly updates input data to deal with future climate scenarios' uncertainty. The analysis compared arabica coffee bean supply to the U. S. market, aiming to determine if arabica coffee bean supply will meet demand from 2022 to 2050 and how to effectively eliminate any shortage through corporate-farmer partnerships.

Source link: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1883713

Contrasting Responses of Hailstorms to Anthropogenic Climate Change in Different Synoptic Weather Systems

We conducted simulations at 1. 2 kilometers grid spacing for severe conjunctive storms that dropped heavy hail and heavy precipitation, and they occurred in two common varieties of synoptic-scale environments in spring seasons across the central United States under both current and future climate conditions. We find that the responses of large hail and heavy rainfall to anthropogenic climate change are significantly different between the two species of synoptic-scale environments are very different between the two types of synoptic-scale environments. Large hail storms in the frontal systems are particularly vulnerable to the ACC, with over 80% rise in large hail occurrences and over 45% increase in heavy precipitation events in the Great Plains, while lightning in the Great Plains low-level jet environment has weak responses, with less than 10% rise in large hail occurrences and less than 15% in heavy precipitation occurrences.

Source link: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1882380

Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change

Forest ecosystems are dependent on their ability to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The increasing incidence of tree mortality in response to climate change is raising questions about change in forest health, but no concrete evidence shows how it is changing in response to climate change. Within the period 2000-to-2020, we use satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to determine how forest resilience, which has been measured in terms of key slowing indicators, has changed since the period 2000-2016. Conversely, boreal forests display contrasting local patterns with an increasing trend in resilience, with perhaps benefited from rising and CO 2 fertilization, which may outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. Forest primary productivity is expected to declines in resilience in the wake of slow drifting toward a critical resilience threshold. According to studies, resilience reductions are proportionally connected to abrupt declines in primary forest primary productivity, which are attributed to abrupt declines in forest primary productivity.

Source link: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1884722

The role of Northeast Pacific meltwater events in deglacial climate change

During the last deglaciation, multiple floods along the Columbia River megafloods occurred frequently, but the effects of this fresh water on Pacific hydrography are mostly unknown. In the Northeast Pacific, we used a numerical model to simulate ocean circulation changes during this period, as well as collected data on sea surface temperature, paleo-salinity, and deep-water radiocarbon from marine sediment cores to reconstruct changes in ocean circulation. During the early deglacial and Younger Dryas periods, the North Pacific sea surface cooled and freshened, coincident with the emergence of subsurface water masses depleted in radiocarbon relative to the sea surface.

Source link: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1626037

Existing Climate Change Will Lead to Pronounced Shifts in the Diversity of Soil Prokaryotes

Soil bacteria are essential to ecosystem function and soil fertility maintenance. Given the majority of the Tibetan Plateau and northern North America, bacterial diversity is expected to increase across the majority of the Tibetan Plateau and northern North America if bacterial populations equilibrate with existing climatic conditions. These findings reveal the widespread ability of climate change to influence belowground diversity and the importance of considering bacterial communities when assessing climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

Source link: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1626173

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group 1, 1994: Modelling Results Relating Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations to Industrial Emissions (DB1009)

The results of several researches into the relationship between future CO2 concentrations and future industrial emissions are contained in this database. These estimates were provided by organizations from a variety of countries as part of the scientific evaluation for the report, titled "Radiative Forcing of Climate Change," published by Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Several models were used to determine Global Warming Potentials; forward projections, estimating the atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from predicted emissions scenarios; inverse calculations, determining the emission rates that would be required to achieve stabilization of CO2 levels by standardized pathways; and impulse response function results, required for determining Global Warming Potentials.

Source link: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1389375

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